Subway Ridership Data as an Indicator of Economic Recovery in Key Chinese Urban Centers During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Covid-19 coincided with a major national holiday in China, leading to a quick spread of the disease to from Wuhan to most large cities around the country. After the initial shutdown, cities began easing restrictions at different rates. This paper uses underground ridership to operationalize the scale of lockdown measures and analyses the economic recoveries in each city. It finds that with a few interesting exceptions, in most cases there is a strong correlation between ridership recovery and economic performance.