The Quest for the Pivotal Vote : An empirical contribution to the literature on the Paradox of Voting

Abstract

This study aims at contributing to the literature on the effect of political competition on turnout. We test the Downsian Closeness Hypothesis (DCH) on data from runoffs in General Elections in Hungary. The expected closeness of the run-offs are proxied with first round margins. The findings are consistent with the DCH: increases in margins between parties in the first round significantly decrease turnout in the second, even when turnout in the first round is controlled for. Similarly, the size of the electorate is negatively associated with turnout. This is in line with the theoretical considerations of the DCH but contrary to a large part of the existing empirical literature.