Looking back or looking out? A reevaluation of economic voting

Absztrakt (kivonat)

Economic voting theory explains electoral outcomes with economic performance during the rule of an incumbent. Voters are assumed to evaluate politicians based on Bayesian calculations about the quality of the politician. In this paper we enrich this framework with the possibility of inter-country comparison. From a simple model of information externality, we derive that voters in fact find it useful to use such comparisons. The predictions of the model are tested using panel on data elections in 16 European countries from 1950 to 2007. Our results support the hypothesis that inter-country comparisons were relevant factors in at least our sample of electoral outcomes.