Inquiring Motivations Behind French Foreign Policy in the Syrian Civil War: A Realist Perspective

Absztrakt (kivonat)

The outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 marked a pivotal moment for French foreign policy, as it departed from its historically cordial relations with Syrian leaders to openly condemn the Assad regime's repression of peaceful civilian demonstrators. This shift culminated in a significant move, when France issued an international arrest warrant against Bashar al-Assad in November 2023, a time when some nations have been already normalizing ties with his government. This research endeavors to provide a comprehensive analysis of the motivations behind France's sustained engagement in the Syrian conflict, transcending mere humanitarian concerns. By examining political, economic, and social dimensions, the study aims to uncover France's intricate interests and security considerations in the region. Furthermore, it explores how these interests align with the dynamics of regime change in Syria, resulting in indirect competition with Russia and its allies, whom France perceives as a threat to the balance of power in the Middle East. Through the lens of the International Relations Theory of Neorealism and the Balance of Power, this research offers a nuanced understanding of France's role in the conflict and inquires into the degree of France's success in balancing Russia, amidst the complex geopolitical landscape of the Syrian conflict. The research findings reinforce the importance of regime change for France, viewed through Neorealism, and support the argument that on diplomatic and economic grounds, as well as in the indirect wars on terrorism and migration, that have been evolving between France, the West, and Russia, France has been mainly marginalized, despite its efforts.