The Role of Infectious Disease in the Intensification of Violent Conflict : The Syrian Civil War and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The occurrence of a pandemic or war in history had by itself a ravaging impact on affected societies and economies, or humanity as a whole. On the occasion of the two distinct catastrophes taking place simultaneously and in the exact geographical location, they tend to intensify one another. The Covid-19 pandemic originating from Wuhan, China, has been causing devastation in the world since February 2020. In unstable states and regions that are a stage for major conflicts, the newly appeared epidemic has even graver effects on the economy, political stability, and human lives. This paper aims to find and provide a pattern that proves the inclination that infectious diseases (IDs) intensify violent conflicts despite certain speculations claiming the opposite. Taking under scrutiny various examples in modern history of an epidemic appearing in a war-torn region will enable one to discover re-appearing tendencies. Since the recently emerged Covid-19 pandemic is the center of our research, after a general examination of the impact of IDs on war, the study will dwell on the pandemic’s effect on the progress of the Syrian civil war. Describing the situation preceding the current pandemic outbreak is fundamental to discover the alterations in a conflict situation that are in a causal relationship with the disease's spread. The methodology used in this research is the qualitative method of comparative case studies. As to conclude the study, results and findings will be presented systematically, and the central question of the research "Can infectious diseases directly contribute to the intensification of conflict?” will be answered.