Slow consolidation or the calm before the storm?

Absztrakt (kivonat)

The aim of this paper is to explore how Russia, the EU, the US, Turkey and the Gulf States try to strengthen their influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and how their soft power moves slow the development of the young country. I supposed, that the four following phenomena are in strong relation: the dysfunctionality of the ethnicity based Dayton Constitution, the ethnic conflicts between the Bosniaks, the Croats and the Serbs, the vacuum created by the lack of Western attention, and the external players’ divide and conquer attitude towards BiH. After my analysis, I found this hypothesis (the correlation between the four) to be vindicated, and that support from the examined countries is not always selfless and constructive. During my research I tried to find and present how the theory of soft balancing explains certain events and moves and to examine my assumptions I leaned on articles, studies and a survey research. I explored that as the external players are deepening the ethnic divisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, they hinder the definition of a unanimous aim for the state, thus restrain the young country from restoring itself after an awful war, politically, economically and socially. The relevancy of the topic lies in the fact, that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a very unique melting pot of three different cultures and religions, and this is not a new phenomenon but a historical coexistence. In my opinion, when the question of coexistence is highly contentious (for example, as a result of the migrant crisis), it is very important to try to find precedents.