China-ASEAN Relations regarding the South China Sea Disputes: An Analysis after the South China Sea Arbitration Award of 2016

Absztrakt (kivonat)

The thesis examines the evolution of China-ASEAN relations over the South China Sea disputes since the 2016 award of the arbitral tribunal on the South China Sea arbitration between the Philippines and China was issued. It draws on a wide range of primary and secondary sources to trace and account for continuity and shifts in China and ASEAN member countries’ approach to the issues, with a particular focus on how these approaches affect their relations in this regard during the research period. The thesis finds that after the arbitral tribunal’s ruling in favor of the Philippines, both China and ASEAN member countries have adjusted their strategy towards the disputes to a certain extent. These adjustments have resulted in positive developments in the contested maritime areas, as evidenced in a significant decrease in the number of severe clashes between countries involved compared to that of the previous period. The temporarily visible silence in these strategically significant waters, however, is only on the surface. There are still definite underwater waves that could potentially spark off conflicts between China and ASEAN claimant countries in the future, stemming primarily from unilateral actions taken by Beijing to bolster its extensive claims within the controversial “nine-dash line.” Furthermore, given the growing complexity of the disputes and the increasingly tremendous geostrategic importance of the South China Sea in the challenging global situation, the thesis concludes that it does not seem realistic to see any significant progress in the near future towards an ultimate long-term resolution to these issues between China and ASEAN countries.