China’s maritime disputes in the South China Sea

Absztrakt (kivonat)

The aim of this paper is to answer the question whether the use tying-hands signals is the rational strategy for China to further increase its relative power in the South China Sea. It concludes that while tying-hands signals on average better then sunk-cost signals, in China’s case the use of tying-hands signals carry risks for Beijing. Therefore, the use of these signals are not necessarily a rational strategy. The conclusion is based on James D. Fearon’s seminal theoretical framework and signalling game model and an empirical investigation of the actors’ signals based on a qualitative analysis of the news coverage of official statements and actions. The relevance of the subject is given by the constant maritime disputes in the South China Sea, and by China’s goal to increase its influence as a superpower.