The effects of China’s rise on Third World democratization

Absztrakt (kivonat)

China is about to become a superpower of the 21th century. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of China’s rise on Third World democracies. The theoretical context and recent scientific debates are examined and quantitative research is conducted on the issue. Using a theoretical framework focusing on the linkages between democratization, globalization and international power relations, it can be concluded that a rising superpower may have a negative impact on democratization; however, in the case of China recent literature shows that, despite of various accusations from both sides, there is no clear conclusion about Chinese effects at all. In order to get an overall picture about Chinese expansion, quantitative research was conducted and a multiple linear regression model was set up. The results show that the Chinese expansion had a negative effect in the mid-90’s but it has weakened first then completely disappeared by now; consequently the growing concerns about China’s role are mostly unfounded. Finally, the paper offers some plausible explanations which may contribute to an understanding of the dynamics of Chinese effects.